Recently

More articles in the archive.

Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet 03 February 07

Published 19 March 2007 by Fourth Estate (HarperCollins). Buy it here! Don't miss the whole section on Six Degrees - including debates and latest info. Like many who watched the hurricane disaster strike New Orleans last year, I was shocked at the deprivations endured by the victims – left to fend for themselves in terrible conditions in the world’s richest country. It was shocking in itself, but I also felt something else: that this was a window into the future, a glimpse of what may be in store for us all if nothing is done about global warming. I kept wondering: where next? How and what will happen as the world warms bit by bit? With up to six degrees of global warming on the cards over the next hundred years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), what will happen to our coasts, our towns, our forests, our rivers, our croplands and our mountains? Will we all, as some environmentalists suggest, be reduced to eking out a living from shattered remains of civilisation in Arctic refuges, or will life go on much as before – only a little warmer?

Hence my Six Degrees project, which was published as a book in March 2007 by Fouth Estate (HarperCollins). Over the last two years I have sifted through thousands of scientific papers, published in dozens of academic journals, each with a prediction which is relevant to the century ahead. I categorised them all by degree, and on the basis of this unique compendium of data began to write chapters, each telling the story of how our world will change with each degree of global warming. Here are summaries of the first three chapters – to see how it ends, you’ll have to buy the book itself. (You can order from Amazon.co.uk here.)

(You can also read a degree-by-degree outline, published on the front page of the Independent newspaper on 3 February 2007, which uses some of the material to be published in the book, and see a brief glimpse of the ‘six degree world’, also as published in the Independent.)

One Degree

Deserts invade the High Plains of the United States, in a much worse repeat of the 1930s dustbowl. Whilst the epicentre is Nebraska, states from Canada in the north to Texas in the south suffer severe agricultural losses. Mount Kilimanjaro loses all its ice. The Gulf Stream switches off – perhaps, plunging Britain and Europe into icy winter cold. Irreversible feedbacks take hold in the Arctic as ice disappears, and the permafrost line shifts north. Rare species wiped out in the Queensland rainforest, Australia. Coral reefs around the world suffer increasing losses from bleaching and are wiped out. Coral atolls submerge under the rising seas.

Two Degrees

Oceans turn increasingly acidic, wiping out calcareous plankton and further hitting surviving coral reefs – much of the marine food chain endangered. One summer in every two has heatwaves as strong as the 2003 disaster in Europe, when 30,000 died. Drought, fire and searing heat strikes the Mediterranean basin. Greenland tips into irreversible melt, accelerating sea-level rise and threatening coastal cities around the world. Hundreds of millions live in peril of the rising seas. Polar bears, walrus and other ice-dependent marine mammals extinct in the Arctic. Glaciers in Peru disappear, threatening water supplies to Lima. Declining snowfields also threaten water supplies in California. A third of species worldwide face extinction as the climate changes – the worst mass extinction since the end of the dinosaurs.

Three Degrees

The Kalahari desert spreads across Botswana, engulfing the capital in sand dunes, and driving millions of refugees out to surrounding countries. A permanent El Nino grips the Pacific, causing weather chaos around the world, and drought in the Amazon. The whole Amazonian ecosystem collapses in a conflagration of fire and destruction – desert and savannah eventually take over where the world’s largest rainforest once stood. Huge amounts of carbon pour into the atmosphere, adding another degree to global warming. Water runs short in Perth, Sydney and other parts of Australia away from the far north and south. Hurricanes strike the tropics half a category stronger than today’s, with higher windspeeds and rainfall. Agriculture shifts into the far north – Norway’s growing season becomes like southern England is today. But with declines in the tropics and sub-tropics due to heat and drought, the world tips into net food deficit. The Indus river runs dry due to glacial retreat in the Himalayas, forcing millions of refugees to flee Pakistan. Possible nuclear conflict with India over water supplies.

Order now from Amazon.co.uk

Comments

Lucas King

I think that 1 degree is a close resembelence to todays climate change, as it is already happening and is very important that people know about this and I feel this book is a good source of finding out about climate change.

James Peel

This book is a very terrifing reality of how climate change is effecting our world. Chapter 1, 1 degree describes what has already started to happen in the world. It’s a very educational book which contains some really relevent topics such as usa and how it might turn back into a desert. could have been a bit more intresting because i nearly fell asleep while reading it at 2 in the afternoon.

Christian B

If this is what will happen if we only go up by 6 degrees people seriously need to change their atitude towards global warming. The credit crunch has not helped the sale of hybrid cars and i think that the credit crunch will affect pollution because people won’t bother spending more money on things like hybrid cars.

Harry Phillips

Try to also include something positive because otherwise conservationists might just give up and there really would be no hope.

Jens Råberg

6 degrees hotter at the end of the Perm era? The book “6 degrees” mentions the mass extinction at the end of Perm as an example of 6 degrees hotter. One webpage I found about the mass extinction pointed to possibly 10-30 degrees hotter. http://news.mongabay.com/2005/0829-permian_triassic.html. Is 6 degrees hotter in end of perm the most likely?

I’m using parts of the book “6 degrees” for a slideshow. If the example is relevant it’s very good and I want to use it. The books reference (no 21 in the 6 degrees chapter) to the temperature is Benton, M., 2003. When life nearly died…

Otherwise I’m looking for free pictures showing what has already happended (situations like in “High tide”). Happy for suggestions!

Cesc Batlle

I have just read your books “6 degrees” and I wanted to thank you wholeheartedly for having written it. I have been interested in climate issues for a long while and I had never come across a book that put together data from so many sources in such a comprehensible and readable context. The book lays down a clear what, why and when path forward depending on what we do, contemplating many of the ramifications that might get lost for someone not so versed in the matter. I have not seen any important fact or consideration that I was aware of, ignored in your book. I want to thank you specially for having included in your consideration the full effect of the feedback loops that are so clearly a essential part of the working of our planet: as you so rightly highlight, the predicted evolution of the climate changes is, in an absolutely radical manner, depending on whether you consider them or not. I have known the Gaia theory for quite some time, I ‘m fully convinced of its validity, with all its implications for our planet, and I couldn’t fail to despair and shake my head in amazement to see that something so obvious was systematically ignored by so many, including some supposedly privileged brains of the scientific world.

I will recommend your book as the primer that contains anything you need to know about climate change and its dangers so, in this regard, your book fulfills a very important mission: for those that may want to have an actualized and summarized view of the issue, it delivers, ready made, a comprehensive guide, in detail and depth, of what lays ahead, so that then anyone can act according to their conscience in full possession of all facts. This is a “must have” for the cause of spreading the word and you have provided it.

The prospect of disappearance of the human race is sad beyond words but, somehow, the prospect that, ultimately, we might even manage to wipe out life completely from our precious planet is something that fills me with a sense of loss and despair I can not cope with. The problem is that, if I was a betting man, I would put very little odds to the possibility that we might see our emissions peaking in 2015 or thereabouts (and this would be just to not rule out a last minute miracle). People seem to merrily go around about their businesses and happily disregard all the warning messages; in some, I would even say that they look at the topic with contempt (“oh, here we go again with this bore…”). I just can not see how things can change enough in the little time we have left. The irony is that it feels as if we were really learning the full measure of our impact in the world, in time to be saddled with the burden, but without enough time to really change it. It is as we were shouting to the captain of the Titanic that an iceberg is fast approaching, but our voices were somehow muffled. We seem to be getting there just that tad late that makes all the difference.

I’m doing what I can from my end but it all feels like with way too little impact. So if you have suggestions of anything that you might consider effective I would appreciate to hear about it.

At any rate, all of this doesn’t take away from the merit and the excellent contribution of your book so, once again, many thanks for having written it.

sally andrew

Thanks, Mark for a great book. In response to the question raised in some of the comments as to “what can we do?’ you may find some ideas in my book, ‘The Fire Dogs of Climate Change – An inspirational call to action.’ excerpts and more info are on my blogsite: http://sallyandrew.findhornpress.com All best wishes Sally

David Simmons

Dear Mark Lynas,

The picture you paint of global warming is utterly terrifying. One of the comments on your website suggests finding a more dramatic label than climate change. Well, scientists talk about the heat death of the universe – how about global heat death? Maybe only to be introduced at the end of, say, Chapter 5 or 6.

And if it catches on, use it more extensively in future.

Critics would say it was scaremongering, so a slow, subtle introduction might be best.

By the way, I’m sure you are aware of the big corporations trying to rubbish the whole idea of climate change. And there is a growing awareness of the harm caused by big business.

To take just one example, Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, “told MPs on the cross-party Treasury select committee… ..that policy¬makers were a “long way,” from solving the problem of large, unwieldy banks that are “too big to fail”. … “Too big to fail is too important to sweep under the carpet,” King said.” (Heather Stewart. The Guardian. Wednesday 24 June 2009.) “Too big to fail” also means being given the leeway that makes failure more likely. But also, more dangerous.

I would like to put these ideas to members of the Climate Camp. Is there a way I could do this?

Best Wishes,

David Simmons

steven hale

Read Jarred Diamonds ’ Collapse’ to further understand our inability to make, or, not make vital calls for our uncertain future!!!