Another heatwave, same old question 25 July 06

Maybe another way of looking at it is, where do scientists get their data? Well, from the weather, such as the current heatwaves. So the heatwaves are further data supporting GW (they in no way support what the contrarians are saying, that there’s no warming, or the heatwaves are natural). And we have to stick to the GW theory, unless it gets disproved at some future date by lots of cold spells over many years.

Meanwhile, we should expect more heat & do our best to reduce our GHGs—esp since we may need those fossil fuel then a reign of cold spells starts hitting, perhaps sometime in the future. Either way, reduce GHGs!

Yes it’s difficult and frustrating and I’m sure we’ve had this debate below somewhere previously.

Scientists will sound like pedants at times. I think it’s fair to say that goes with the territory. It’s also worth bearing in mind the sort of attacks they experience from the fossil fuel denialist lobby. Note recent attacks on Mann and see this over at desmogblog http://www.desmogblog.com/vampire-memo-reveals-coal-industry-plan-for-massive-propaganda-blitz These people don’t just fade away.

It’s also worth noting Chris Mooney’s approach to language on hurricanes. See this for instance http://scienceblogs.com/intersection/2006/06/gores_weakest_link.php#more

I understand the caution. I also understand the need for inspired reporting and enjoy a bit of polemic!

There was a very interesting discussion on vegetable shortages, weather and AGW/CC on the Farming Today programme this morning. The speaker for the Environment Agency used both ways of referring to weather events. In sum she said while you can’t attribute a single weather event to AGW/CC there is a clear trend which is the result of AGW/CC. Check it out here http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/radio4_aod.shtml?radio4/farmingtoday The piece starts at about 4 mins 15 secs in. The EA speaker, Jean James is towards the end.

Douglas Coker

Demonstration August 26th at NOAA’s National Headquarters in Silver Spring, Md Join Us As We Demand: Justice for Katrina Survivors! NOAA Leadership: Stop the Global Warming Cover-Up! Katrina survivors and national leaders will speak about climate change. Activists will read aloud the names of hundreds of people still missing from Katrina.

Dear Chesapeake Climate Action Network Supporter:

Hurricane Katrina caused over 1,500 deaths but little had been done to address the injustice and short-sightedness that the disaster uncovered. Now it’s your turn to take action. On Saturday, August 26, at 12 noon, let’s join together to remember and mourn for those who died while we demand action on the greatest source of future Katrina-like disasters: global warming. We will call for jobs, housing, health care, environmental cleanup and justice for Katrina survivors. We will demand that our government get serious about cutting the global warming pollution that is creating stronger and more frequent Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, according to many scientists.

Instead of protecting Americans, NOAA’s leadership, in direct violation of the agency’s mission to warn the nation about “dangerous weather” and “improve our understanding and stewardship of the environment,” is ignoring or distorting the growing number of scientific studies linking major hurricanes to global warming. Their actions are placing tens of millions of coastal Americans at greater risk of experiencing Katrina-like devastation.

WHAT: Protest and Rally Demanding Climate Justice and Truth Telling from the NOAA Leadership

WHERE: NOAA headquarters, 1305 East-West Hwy, Silver Spring, MD 20910 map

WHEN: Noon – 3pm August 26

WHO: U.S. Climate Emergency Council and the Chesapeake Climate Action Network

CONTACT: Anne Havemann anne@chesapeakeclimate.org 301.891.6844 for more information and to help.

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BACKGROUND Dear CCAN supporter:

We are writing to urge you to join with us on Saturday, August 26th outside the Silver Spring headquarters of NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Two months ago CCAN and the new, national group it has birthed, the U.S. Climate Emergency Council, held an effective action at the NOAA offices. Following a press conference/rally on the morning of May 31st, we maintained a continuous presence for the next 37 hours, until midnight of June 1st, the first official day of the hurricane season. We talked to hundreds of people, mainly NOAA employees, and distributed 2,000 leaflets. Our presence was felt, and we received national press coverage via radio, TV and the internet.

Our message was direct: NOAA leadership, stop covering up the strong and growing scientific evidence linking more powerful hurricanes to global warming. Doing so is placing tens of millions of coastal Americans at greater risk of experiencing, over the coming years and decades, the kind of catastrophic impacts we saw in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina, or worse.

Now, as we approach the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, we are making plans for a much larger action on August 26th. Many hundreds of us will join together to remember and mourn for those who died last year. We will call for jobs, housing, health care, environmental cleanup and justice for the Katrina survivors. And we will demand that our government get serious about cutting down the global warming pollution that is generating stronger and more frequent Category 4 and 5 hurricanes like Katrina.

Under its current leadership, NOAA is in direct violation of its declared mission to warn about “dangerous weather” and “improve our understanding and stewardship of the environment.” We will ask that NOAA leadership fully disclose the link between hurricanes and global warming and end its intimidation of scientists. If it cannot make these changes, then we need new leadership at NOAA.

It’s time to stand up for climate justice and truth-telling!

Please let us know that you will be with us on the 26th.

Talk to friends, family members and others you know to urge them to come. And contact Anne Havemann at 301-891-6844 or anne@chesapeakeclimate.org if you want to volunteer to make August 26th a major success.

Sincerely,

Mike Tidwell, Ted Glick, Anne Havemann, Josh Tulkin, Matt Stern, Claire Douglass, Diana Dascalu-Joffe, Kyle Hubbard, Emma Cape, Don Giecek, Gary Skulnik

The Earth Policy Institute have just published new death figures for the 2003 European heat wave: 52,000.

Given that death rates were seriously under-reported three years ago, I imagine they are being under-reported (or not reported at all) just now.

I was in Germany throughout July’s heatwave. As far as I am aware, there have been no media reports of heath deaths. Except for an obituary of an apparently well-known young actress whose death was linked to heat. Unlikely a young celebrity was the only victim.

It was truly terrifying to read all the German newspaper reports of a ‘super summer, as in 2003’ (although absolutely everybody I spoke to said they found it unbearable and far from superb). My brief impression was one of Germany being years behind the UK in awareness of the climate catastrophe, but I can only go by the media, websites, speaking to some people, including a relative who has been an active environmentalist for 30 years, looking at leaflets from environmental organisations, etc.

The vague answers from climate scientists sound inexcusable to me: June 2006 was the hottest ever in the Northern Hemisphere, with June 2005 coming second. No doubt July 2006 will be the hottest July in the north, and probably globally. There are scary figures which are simply not in the media. So far I have not heard any explanation at all for this extraordinary rate of warming during the northern hemisphere summer in recent years. Interestingly, neither the Met Office’s nor any other UK or German seasonal forecast was for a hot and dry summer throughout the UK and western Europe, again suggesting that there is something quite unpredicted (and not linked to sea surface temperatures and past patterns) going on.

Almuth

And apparently there’s more to come in August!

Douglas Coker

Hi Almuth,

We need to include all the millions of African deaths due to their prolonged drought which has recently been proven to have been caused by global warming based on computer models. This drought started back in 1960 and was caused by a warming of the Indian Ocean and this warming caused the rain patterns to change in Africa permanently.

I agree with you and others in that the science is underestimating the threat and most important for me is the extreme difficulty in preventing climate change. Still, I am not convinced we have crossed that point of no return even though we seem to be racing toward reaching it. We have not yet even tried to prevent climate change based on what I know is possible and within our reach.

Almuth, could you please email Mark Lynas and ask him to forward your email to me so we can have a private dialogue off the blog. There is a small group of regulars from Mark’s blog and we email each other on occasion. I am especially interested in how Germany’s society evolved to be so environmentally conscious and how America can learn how to do the same.

Best Regards,

Dan

I just read that Pat Robertson, a very conservative Christian, has just converted to a AGW believer due to the heat wave in the U.S.

I guess my answer to any skeptic or scientist who pooh-poohs a AGW-heatwave link, would be, “Yeh, okay, just a ‘normal’ fluctuation, so what’ll it be like when GW starts kicking in?”

Another way I look at it is that given the actual conditions we live in (the current GHGs & AGW), I feel we can attribute all weather to AGW (we could call on the “butterfly effect” if need be – how tiny changes affect big things). So it is now up to others to prove at 95% certainty that a certain heatwave or hurricane is due to natural fluctuations.

Another thing is I just read about nights being extremely warmer than in the past (I’m sure well beyond any “natural” fluctuations – and this I think is a GW signature, so maybe we can prove fairly conclusively that GW is heating up the nights (tho the days my still perhaps be within “natural” fluctuations), and it is the hot nights more than the hot days that kill people, who don’t have that cooler time to recouperate anymore.