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Still too expensive to save the planet, say economists 23 August 05

Some people out there are climate sceptics. I’m an economics sceptic. I think most pronouncements by economists are bunk, and that economists are the last people we should consult about any issue of relevance to humanity. Economics claims to be a science, despite being a philosophy constructed more on ideology and faith than on any observable reality. As someone once said, scientists change their theories to fit the real world, whereas economists change the real world to fit their theories. Which brings me to the latest piece of ludicrous economics: the report by an outfit called Lombard Street Research (covered in the Scotsman newspaper) which claims that preventing global warming would cost $18 trillion, or 45% of annual world GDP. This news delights the wierdos who write Blogs for Bush (yes, as far as I can tell these people actually exist, though I can’t discount the possibility that they’re actually robots controlled from Dick Cheney’s bunker). Not being an ultra-rich corporation myself, I don’t have access to the Lombard Street Research report to challenge the way this figure was calculated. But I’d be happy to bet that these guys cook the books by heftily multiplying all the various economic ‘damages’ of reducing carbon use whilst neglecting to subtract the true cost of likely damages from climate change. As I know only too well from researching for my next book Six Degrees, there are hundreds of projections out there for climate change impacts, each one of which holds the potential to devastate entire countries and continents. Have Lombard Street Research surveyed the scientific literature and added these into the financial equation? I strongly doubt it. Indeed, there’s a strong stink of bias emanating from the press statement of report author Charles Dumas, who says: “This [$18 trillion figure] is orders of magnitude greater than the cost of dealing with higher sea levels and freak weather, net of land gains in Canada, Siberia and other cold areas in thousands of square miles.” Moreover, Dumas continues, “nobody seriously proposes a cure for global warming, because adequate measures would cause economic catastrophe and probably world war”. Ideology or science? You decide.

Comments

Lynn Vincentnathan

How does moving closer to work/school/shops on next move (to a similarly priced house), buying an efficient car on next car buy, turning off lights not it use, installing low-flow showerheads, reducing meat consumption, reusing everything that can be reused (even back of used paper), reducing consumption of unnecessary & stupid things that bring no benefits or happiness, off-setting part of our car driving by cycling & walking (which improves the health & spirits), cost anything? SUCH MEASURES TO ABATE GW $AVE MONEY! Maybe they meant we save $18 trillion. They just got their plus/minus signs mixed up.

Almuth Ernsting

I wonder if they simply say “creating energy from fossil fuels contributes x amount to GDP, if we didn’t burn fossil fuels, all this would be wiped out”. Conveniently forgetting that we would still be creating energy somehow, and expanding new energy sectors, such as wind or solar, must if anything boost economies. I think some oil companies pointed out that their workforce have got exactly the skills needed for off-shore windfarms and wave energy – great. If a company like Ford made fuel-efficient cars their profits would almost certainly be better than they are from their gas-guzzlers, even today. It just makes no sense at all, not even if climate change didn’t exist.

Peter Winters BHI

It’s a good & important point you are making, Mark. As a general, philosphical point, I think economists (& many social scientists) fall into the philosophical trap of determinism. Karl “economic superstructure” Marx, Margaret “you can’t buck the markets” Thatcher , the liberal “balanced budgets”, economies of the 1930s, Joe “5 year plan” Stalin , Winston “Gold Standard” Churchill etc. etc. were all able to watch economic pain in the name of bunk economic theory & poor assumptions.

Yet, economics still be extremely valuable – especially micro economic theory which helps us understand how to make markets work efficiently for social goals. Also, we do need to figure how to change our infrastructure away from a hydro-carbon economy in an efficient & cost effective fashion. But it is something we just have to do, and I am convinced it can be done in a way that will not be too painful. What other choice do we have?

Lynn Vincentnathan

from a world into cutting GHGs. First, they could cut their own in cost-effective & money-saving ways. 2nd they could start making things that people really need, “real goods.” 3rd they could get on the bandwagon of making things that help people cut their GHGs (diversifying away from things that increase GHGs), and help prevent/abate the GW harm that’s already in the pipeline (even if we all reduce GHGs tremendously, starting today).

I was always taught how great America is, our significant contributions to the industrial revolution & modern tech, our really great business acumen and entrepreneurship. Those are the qualities we need now applied to abating GW. Unless we’ve become too soft & soft-minded….

Lynn Vincentnathan

even if it were to cost us mucho to cut GHGs and abate GW, there is a moral imperative that we do it to save lives. Luckily we in the West (if we do have to sacrifice (which I don’t think we will have to do very much)) have a lot of blubber we can cut out before we reach the point of harming our own lives/health.

Dano

“The good Earth—we could have saved it, but we were too damn cheap and lazy.”

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