Time for climate scientists to come off the fence 09 June 05

Yesterday’s much-reported statement on climate change from various national academies of science – aimed at world leaders meeting at the G8 summit in Gleneagles next month – is perhaps a welcome sign that scientists are at last beginning to lose their shyness about engaging in the policy arena. But the statement itself is rather underwhelming, as Friends of the Earth quite justifiably complained. Whilst the document does conclude that “scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear the justify nations taking prompt action”, second on this “prompt action” list is the demand for “an international study” to explore what CO2 concentration targets might be. Isn’t it funny how when scientists write a statement they always call for more research? In my view, we already have a clear enough idea of what the likely impacts of future climate change will be to choose targets already. I suggest 400ppm – tops. And that the remaining emissions budget should be distributed amongst world nations on the basis of their populations, as proposed by Contraction and Convergence. Are there any scientists out there who are prepared to come off the fence a little more and tell us what they do support? I’m actually doing a debate tonight in Oxford with leading climate scientist Myles Allen where I’ll be asking this very question.