How likely is dangerous climate change? 03 February 05

The Independent splashed big with Bill Hare’s presentation yesterday – the whole front page was devoted to a detailed list of likely damages to ecosystems and economies as temperatures rise. Also the subject of intense conversation here in Exeter is the Climateprediction.net study which suggested climate sensitivity values from 2 to 11C. I’ve just had a detailed conversation with both Myles Allen and Dave Stainforth (both Oxford University scientists who worked on the project) and they told me that the most important conclusion here is that very high climate sensitivities cannot be ruled out using currently-available data. However, the higher climate sensitivity is, the longer the temperature would take to rise (because of the inertia of the climate system) – so if climate sensitivity did prove to be 11C none of us would be around to see it as the change would take several centuries. Some reassurance? Possibly – it would at least buy us time. But the message from this conference remains the same: action to tackle climate change is technologically possible, increasingly cheap and very urgent.