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Warmest February ever? 04 February 04

I heard yesterday via the Met Office that temperature records were broken in North Yorkshire when the mercury hit 16.3C. Well, it got to about 16C again here in Oxford today – and the crocuses are blooming in my back garden. Meanwhile, Wales is drowning: an unbelievable amount of rain fell today, particularly in the north. All evidence of a rapidly-changing climate.

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William Ross

After spending much of the first part of last week digging ditches and building barricades, I can testify to the oddness of the weather. The steep little lane that leads past our house turned into a river strong enough to wash away a middling-sized dog, and flooded several people just in passing, to widespread exclamations that [person] has been here for [many] years and never seen anything like it.

But is it ever really persuasive to argue from a freakish incident to a gradual change? Especially given that grumbling about the weather is such a popular pastime, in particular the failure of the present weather to match that of one’s youth.

If foreboding an increase in average temperature of a degree or two just makes people think of sunny days, maybe what’s needed is a way to map and predict the extremeness or volatility of the weather? rising number of incidents of a certain severity, etc. It would be very effective if one could predict the increased likelihood of encountering disaster.

do you want comments on these, by the way? I’ll switch them off if not.

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