2004 fourth warmest year on record 16 December 04

to express my dismay. I went to the realclimate.org site (run by bonafide climate scientists), and there was a refutation of Michael Crichton’s new book, STATE OF FEAR. That book is really bad news for the environmental movement. I seems its theme is about environmentalists & climate scientists falsely causing alarm over non-existent global warming for their evil ends. It seems to be opposite the way I see it: the climate change skeptics & various interests refusing to accept the possibility of global warming for their evil (or other???) ends. The sad thing is lots of people are going to read Crichton’s book, which will surely be made into a movie soon, but very few will read the bonafide science that’s coming out.

I found a 5-year pattern from 1992 through 1997 from another temperature graph on the Internet. This 5-year pattern has repeating itself from 1999 through 2004 but all temperatures are higher than the previous 5-year pattern.

If this current 5-year pattern holds true, then the following 6th year will have a spike in temperature. 1998 followed the previous 5-year pattern and 2005 follows the current 5-year pattern.

Let me share my logic in more detail:

From 1992 to 1995 there was a gradual rise in temperature followed by a 2 year decline from 1995 to 1997, then a spike in 1998.

After the 1998 spike, the temperature dropped back down to the 1997 level just as dramatically. So 1999 looks similar to 1997 in temperature.

From 1999 to 2002, there was a gradual rise in temperature, followed by another 2 year decline from 2002 to 2004.

If this pattern repeats again, then we should have another spike in 2005 with 2005 being the warmest year on record with the following year, 2006, going back down to the 2004 level. So, I predict the order in the future will be: 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2004 being the 6th warmest year in the year 2007

My prediction is based solely on a mathematical pattern from noticing the peaks and valleys in the temperature graph from 1992 to present and the relative slopes of either rising or falling temperature trends from 1980 to present.

This is very speculative on my part and there is no consistent mathematical pattern I saw in the graph whereby you can reliably predict a given year.

However, based on the assumption that I may be correct, then we should exploit 2005 in being more proactive about climate issues.

Peak years do weigh on the public consciousness and they will not know that the following year, 2006, will see a decline if 2005 peaks.

So, plan to be involved in the coming year 2005 in shaping public opinion as a New Years resolution.

I have been measuring my house temperatures inside to calculate energy flow and I utilize a local weather service online and noticed what appears to be discrepancies.

Below is a letter I emailed their IT department to pass on to one of their executives.

Please wish me luck! I will inform you as to the outcome.

This not a Software Glitch: It is in regard to the precision and accuracy of your weather station’s temperature measurements.

I know you are IT people but after reading my request, your IT manager may be able to email my concern to the appropriate people.

One station had a temperature early this morning of 34.7 F while another station had a temperature of 42.8 F. This was a calm period with a wind speed of 1 mph. Why is there a 9 F degree difference when theses stations are only 2.5 miles apart?

I have noticed a difference between my own temperature measurements where I live and the station closest to me by as much as + 4 F degrees after sunset and – 4 F degrees after sunrise. During the day and just after midnight, my temperature matches this station. Why is this?

There are temperature variations between stations across the general area where I live that seem consistent and yet not related to wind and direction which might give a clue to why a station more north having a different temperature than a station further south.

There should be a correlation based on a warm wind from the south versus a cold wind from the north and this should correlate based on time, wind speed, and direction. This idea does not seem to account for the discrepancies I have noticed.

The factors that I think which could influence station temperature measurements would be the altitude, the land albedo close by (parking lots versus grass and trees), solar shading of the local location where the temperatures are measured, and energy sources such as building basements which could heat the nearby ground.

During cold temperatures like what we are currently experiencing, the ground becomes a significant source of heat. Solar storage of heat during the day in areas not shaded by trees and where the albedo is low, could effectively raise the ground temperatures enough to create these discrepancies because the pattern seems to occur mostly during the morning and after sunset.

Likewise, highly shaded areas would do the opposite with the trees absorbing the solar energy and not allowing the ground to conduct it into the soil.

If anyone has looked into these discrepancies, then I would LOVE to get an explanation. Otherwise, if you wish to employ me for a very short project, I can work with your employees (or volunteers) to investigate the reason for any such differences such as the ones I mentioned.

This would be a good project to improve both the precision and accuracy of station temperature measurements and it may lead to clues about local conditions at the measuring site which could aid residences whom have different conditions but use the station nearest them for their temperature readings.

I am an available mechanical engineer. I am measuring heat flow from my house to gain knowledge about my own energy use and I constantly monitor your site as well as taking temperature measurements at various locations inside my house and outside.

I am also interested in climate change issues. Since weather station temperature measurements are often used to determine global conditions, it is imperative that local effects be taken into consideration. This is especially true when global differences are averaged from all these measurements and the overall averages create very small changes of less than a degree.

If you have an interest in researching this local station effect more, then it may require purchase of a few portable measuring instruments that can verify the precision and accuracy of station temperature measurements.

Determining altitude, solar shading and soil temperatures close by may be warranted if local conditions are affecting the site measurements. Experiments should be conducted simultaneously among 2 or more local stations during various hours of both day and night. Communicating with cell phones can also help to discover differences and if sunny or cloudy conditions would change these discrepancies.

I realize that this would not be in your budget but it seems like a worthy project nevertheless. Since so many stations are located at schools, then an educational opportunity exists to solicit help from the science and math departments of each school and this would be free labor. There may be other interested parties concerned about climate change who would contribute funding to this effort if your organization cannot provide an adequate explanation already.

If you can kindly approach your manager to talk to company executives about this issue regarding the accuracy and precision of station temperature measurements, then I would be most appreciative.

I would love to hear back from someone in your organization who could give me some insightful feedback or perhaps discuss a project and funding sources if you deem a project is warranted and of mutual benefit to advance our understanding of local effects.

Thanking you in advance for your time and consideration.

Dan Kellogg

Well spotted, Lynn. I think it is based on Bjorn Lomborg again. I took a quick scan of the links you gave me, and I read the following piece (see below).

Lomborg certainly has some powerful contacts and it does make me think about what would be the best way to counter his arguments for the sake of the planet!

http://www.crichton-official.com/speeches/speeches_quote04.html

“But recent events have made me wonder if they are correct. We can take as an example the scientific reception accorded a Danish statistician, Bjorn Lomborg, who wrote a book called The Skeptical Environmentalist.

The scientific community responded in a way that can only be described as disgraceful. In professional literature, it was complained he had no standing because he was not an earth scientist.”

Dan

I noticed that when I went to buy a thermometer and hygrometer from the local scientific goods store, they had a showcase displaying all the models they had on sale. Do you think they displayed identical temperature and humidity readings? Far from it. I’m located about 3km (across open countryside, not urban build-up) from the climate station whose readings are reported on our local radio. The variations between the broadcast reports and my own are quite large (up to 5 degrees C). I put it down to my instruments being of sub-standard quality as well as the 3km distance. I’m not even confident my readings are consistently wrong!

Keith

I am using cheap mercury thermometers but I just checked mine right before going to bed and it was 8 degrees off the closest station with no wind. It is less than 1 km away.

My thermometers and are no more than a degree or two apart with most measuring the same temperature.

By contrast, I see readings posted by these stations to a tenth of a degree.

The differences between stations seem rather consistent over time and if it is not the instruments then it must be the local environment shading and ground temperatures.

I may pay a visit whenever I can find time to some of these stations myself and see if I can see anything that could cause the variations.

If I only had help, I would pass out thermometers and talk by cell phone and check it all out that way.

The five-year pattern is of the El-Nino/Southern Oscillation, which is a well-known climatic phenomenon involving variations in Pacific sea surface temperatures. It has a period of variability of 5-7 years. 1998 was a very strong El-Nino year and hence the record temperaures, but since then we haven’t had a strong El-Nino, as the most recent one fizzled out [that’s natural variability for you – it’s variable!]. It would be noteworthy when the global mean temperature records of 1998 are breached during a year which isn’t a strong El-Nino, and there may well come a time when all years are warmer than the current ‘warmest year’... As ever the IPCC reports contain a lot of information and references [www.ipcc.org]?

Looks like we may not peak next year based on what you shared! Everything seems a bit higher in this present EL Nino cycle though.

I wish I could spend more time on climate science. I have been running around the house looking at thermometers, noting weather changes all day, every day for the last week.

I will be measuring simple ideas one of which is letting the tub fill up with warm water from my shower and allowing the water to return to room temperature releaseing heat and humidity into the dry air.

We normally flush the heat down the drain but I want to use the waste water to add heat to the house before flushing it down the drain.

I need to measure how long it takes the bath water to come to room temperature. I can calculate the energy using the water volume, before and after water temperatures, and then relate it back to the gas water heater efficiency. No big deal on this but every little thing we do adds up if enough people do them.

We need little ideas and BIG ideas. I add to a list all the time of things people can do which cost nothing but a change in procedure.

Some things require little investment but have a big rate of return, and on the other end there is sequestering carbon back into depleted oil wells and climate engineering schemes.

Increasing albedo seems to be important. Maybe we need giant snow machines creating artifical snow in cold areas of dark earth just to reflect the sun? I noticed the land surrounding that flowing glacier Mark posted was very dark! Does this surrounding land conduct solar heat into that glacier system within a decade?

I wish I had more time to devote to everything I am interested in. It is a full time obsession with me to know how we can prevent climate change.